However, it’s also useful, and perhaps more challenging, to think about second and third order consequences. Over a million people are killed in car accidents every year around the world, mostly due to human error, and in a fully autonomous world all of those (and many more injuries) will also go away. Half of global oil production today goes to gasoline, and removing that demand will have geopolitical as well as industrial consequences.
Electric is happening right now, largely as a consequence of falling battery prices, while autonomy, or at least full autonomy, is a bit further off – perhaps 5-10 years, depending on how fast some pretty hard computer science problems get solved.īoth electric and autonomy have profound consequences beyond the car industry itself. There are two foundational technology changes rolling through the car industry at the moment electric and autonomy.
Please consider snips from Cars and Second Order Consequences by Benedict Evans.
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